Election News

Ohio Poll: Biden Leads Trump and Democratic Primary Field

July 25, 2019

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads the Democratic field in Ohio, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University.  Biden also leads President Trump in the general election, with other match-ups essentially even. 

Democratic Primary

Quinnipiac finds Biden well out in front with 31% support.  Sens. Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are all bunched at 13-14%, with South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg receiving 6% of the vote. Nobody else received more than 1%. If this poll were to be exactly right (it won't be1), and if all the delegates were allocated based on the statewide vote (they aren't2), Biden would receive all of the states' 136 pledged delegates.  However, it is an interesting example of how Democratic proportional allocation can become winner-take-all when only one candidate reaches the 15% threshold.

General Election

Biden leads Trump by a 50-42% margin in the Quinnipiac poll.  Other tested match-ups (Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg and Sen. Cory Booker) were dead heats. Trump won the state by 8% in 2016.  Ohio has sided with the winner of each presidential election since 1960, when it chose Richard Nixon over John F. Kennedy.

 

1Ohio's primary is on March 17, two weeks after Super Tuesday.  Approximately 50% of the party's pledged delegates will be allocated prior to this date.  The race will be different by then, with a much smaller field remaining. 

2Of the state's 136 pledged delegates, 47 of them are based on the statewide vote, with the remaining 89 allocated based on the individual vote in each of the state's 16 congressional districts. The 15% threshold applies individually to each of these jurisdictions.



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Michigan Rep. Paul Mitchell to Retire

July 24, 2019

Michigan Rep. Paul Mitchell will retire at the end of this term. The announcement comes less than 10 days after the 2nd term Republican criticized President Trump over his 'go back' comments.

Mitchell represents the state's 10th district, a conservative, mostly rural area north of metro Detroit.  Donald Trump won here by 32% over Hillary Clinton in 2016, his largest margin of victory in a state that provided the closest statewide result in that election. Trump won Michigan by just 0.23%.

Mitchell is the 9th* current House member to announce they will not run for reelection in 2020. Select the map below for more information.  

* Utah's Rob Bishop is reconsidering his retirement announcement, first made back in 2017.  He says a final decision will come at the end of July.


DNC Announces July Debate Lineup

July 17, 2019

The Democratic National Committee has named the 20 candidates that have qualified for the next debate. The only change is that Montana Gov. Steve Bullock will replace Rep. Eric Swalwell of California, who left the race earlier this month.

As with the first debate in June, this one will be held over two nights, July 30 and 31. It will take place in Detroit and be hosted by CNN. That network will conduct a random drawing Thursday at 8:00 PM, to be broadcast live.  No announcement has yet been made about whether the candidates will be divided into smaller groups, with a random drawing within each group. This was done in the June debate, with candidates first split into those polling over/under 2%.

Update:  There will be 3 groups in the random drawing, divided by polling. The 10 polling the lowest will be split over two nights followed by splitting a group of 6 and then the top 4.

  • The First Draw will include 10 candidates: Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan and author Marianne Williamson.
  • The Second Draw will include six candidates: New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke and businessman Andrew Yang.
  • The Final Draw will include four candidates: Former Vice President Joe Biden, California Sen. Kamala Harris, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

Biden Falls to 4th in Latest Change Research California Poll

July 15, 2019

The latest Change Research poll of California shows a lot of movement from their prior survey in late May. Sens. Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are separated by just three points, essentially tied given the poll's margin of error.  Harris and Warren gained 8 and 10 points, respectively, from the prior poll. Sanders had a small decline in support.

The big loser in this poll is Joe Biden. The former vice president saw his support fall from 30% to 17%. He finds himself in 4th place. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg fell from 12% to 8% and remains in 5th place.

The Golden State has the nation's largest allocation of Democratic pledged delegates, currently estimated at 416. Based on this poll, at least the top four finishers would qualify* for delegates, having reached the required 15% threshold.  

California will hold its 2020 primary on March 3 - Super Tuesday. This is significantly earlier in the calendar than the June date it has used in recent cycles. The 416 pledged delegates represent about 30% of those expected to be available that day.

* This is a very rough estimate that won't be correct even if this poll is exactly right. Most Democratic delegates are allocated by congressional district, with the distribution based on the vote in each district.  This means, for example, Buttigieg could earn delegates by reaching 15% in one or more districts, even though he wouldn't qualify (in this scenario) for a share of the statewide delegates.

 


North Carolina 3rd District Republican Runoff Overview and Results

July 9, 2019

A Republican primary runoff is being held in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district on Tuesday, July 9. Polls close at 7:30 PM Eastern Time, with results available here after that.  Reload the page for the latest:

NC-3 has been vacant since the death of GOP Rep. Walter Jones in February. In the party primaries in April, no Republican exceeded 30%, necessitating today's runoff. The top two finishers that advanced are physicians Joan Perry and Greg Murphy, who is also a state representative. Perry has received extensive support from Republican women, hoping to increase their numbers in Congress. All 13 current House GOP women have endorsed Perry.

The winner will face off against the Democratic nominee, former Greenville Mayor Allen Thomas on September 10th. This is a conservative district and the GOP winner today will start out as a large favorite.


Activist Tom Steyer Announces Presidential Run

July 9, 2019

Activist Tom Steyer joined the crowded 2020 Democratic field Tuesday. His campaign indicated it would spend at least $100 million on the race, starting with TV ads in several early primary/caucus states.

The decision marks a reversal of Steyer's announcement in January that he would not seek the Democratic nomination in 2020. At the time, he said that he would continue his activism around the impeachment of President Trump.


Rep. Eric Swalwell Ends 2020 Presidential Bid

July 8, 2019

California Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell has ended his long-shot 2020 bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. Swalwell participated in the recent debate, where he challenged the frontrunner, former Vice President Joe Biden to "pass the torch". However, polling out both before and since the debate has indicated he was gaining little, if any traction in the crowded Democratic field. The four-term Bay Area congressman is expected to continue his career in the House, where he is a member of the Judiciary and Intelligence committees. 

Assuming nobody else qualifies to force a tiebreaker, the departure clears a spot for Montana Gov. Steve Bullock in the next debate, scheduled for July 30 and 31.


Iowa Poll: Biden Still Leads While Harris Gains; Sanders Drops to Single Digits

July 2, 2019

Sen. Kamala Harris' debate performance has yielded notable gains in a new Suffolk University poll of Democrats likely to attend the Iowa caucuses. Former vice president Joe Biden leads with 24%, followed by Harris at 16% and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 13%.  Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is at 9% and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 6%. No other candidate received more than 2% support.

This is the first Suffolk poll of Iowa this cycle, so no apples-apples comparison can be made. However, in the table below we've compared this poll with that released by Selzer & Co. in early June.  Selzer & Co. is one of the most highly regarded pollsters in the state.

Biden saw no change between the two polls, but many of the other candidates had significant moves. Harris more than doubled her level of support and moved into 2nd place.  Sanders and Buttigieg saw the most significant drop in support. Buttigieg had been polling significantly better here than in the national polls. While he may have previously received the benefit of being from a neighboring state, he is now perhaps being more adversely impacted by the ongoing firestorm around the police shooting of Eric Logan.


CNN Poll: Harris, Warren Make Large Move After First Debate

July 1, 2019

A new CNN poll shows significant gains for Sens. Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren, putting them within striking distance of former vice president Joe Biden. The survey, taken after last week's Democratic debate is compared to the prior CNN poll from early June in the table below.

To see other state and national polls, visit our Democratic Nomination page.


Harris Surges in Post-Debate Poll

June 30, 2019

California Sen. Kamala Harris' debate performance has led to a surge in support according to a new poll from Morning Consult. Harris received 12% from the 2,407 registered Democrats surveyed, doubling her pre-debate level of support.  Most of the gain came at the expense of former Vice President Joe Biden, who lost five points.  Still at 33%, Biden remains well ahead of the field.

The debate didn't seem to move the needle much for the remainder of the field. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former HUD Secretary Julian Castro, who both saw generally favorable coverage after their first night performance, saw little change in support. Former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who seemed to come out on the short end of a testy exchange with Castro did see his support fall from 4% to 2%.  

Morning Consult has been conducting a weekly tracking poll of the Democratic field. The current survey was an abbreviated version of that, taken from the conclusion of the debate on June 27 through June 28.

The next Democratic debate will take place on July 30 and 31 in Detroit. It will be hosted and moderated by CNN. Montana Gov. Steve Bullock has qualified, along with the 20 that took place in the just-completed event. However, per DNC rules, a maximum of 20 candidates will be able to participate. If none of the qualifiers withdraws from the race before then, a tiebreaker will take place to eliminate one of them from the debate. 



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