UMass Lowell, in conjunction with 7News in Boston has been conducting a daily tracking poll of New Hampshire voters. Today's release marked the fourth consecutive day, and the first where it appears most of the survey was taken after Iowa. It is expected the poll will be released daily, with the final one on the morning of the New Hampshire primary, February 9.
Republicans: Marco Rubio has gained each day, building on the strength of his better-than-expected showing in Iowa. Today he passed Ted Cruz and into 2nd place, although that one point difference is statistically insignificant. Donald Trump remains well out in front of the dwindling Republican pack. Rand Paul, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee have left the race since the tracking poll began.
Democrats: Bernie Sanders maintains a large lead over Hillary Clinton, although today's tracker indicates Clinton has eaten into that lead slightly.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, there is a 50/50 chance of snow, according to the National Weather Service.
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is ending his 2016 presidential bid, CNN reports. Santorum, who edged eventual nominee Mitt Romney in the 2012 Iowa caucus, was unable to gain any momentum in this year's campaign. He finished a distant 11th, with just 1%, in the 2016 caucus held earlier this week.
Santorum is the second candidate to exit the race today; Rand Paul announced his departure this morning. Mike Huckabee and Democrat Martin O'Malley have also left the race since Monday.
Nine Republicans remain: Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Carson, Bush, Fiorina, Kasich, Christie & Gilmore.
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul became the third person to end a 2016 presidential campaign on the heels of a poorer than hoped-for showing at the Iowa caucus. Paul announced he was suspending his campaign:
“Although, today I will suspend my campaign for president, the fight is far from over,” Mr. Paul said in a statement. “I will continue to carry the torch for Liberty in the United States Senate and I look forward to earning the privilege to represent the people of Kentucky for another term.”
Updating an earlier story, Hillary Clinton has been declared the winner of the Iowa caucuses based on the final results of the Democratic Party there. The Party indicated it would not be doing a recount despite the close result. A spokesman for the Sanders campaign indicated that it wouldn't challenge the results.
Clinton won by about 0.3%. She earned 23 delegates, Sanders 21. Eight delegates remain unallocated at this time. 2,383 delegates are needed to win the nomination.
With all but one precinct reporting, Clinton has just a three-tenths of one percent (0.3%) lead over Sanders. The update goes on to note that Sanders hasn't conceded and the state Democratic Party has not commented on whether a recount is forthcoming.
Republican: Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucuses, with about 28% of the vote. In a close three-way race, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio were next at 24% and 23%, respectively. Cruz and Rubio outperformed the polling average by several points, while Trump underperformed slightly.
Delegates are allocated proportionately in Iowa so delegates were pretty evenly split among the top three finishers. Cruz received 8, with Trump and Rubio getting 7 each. A few delegates remain unallocated at this point.
Mike Huckabee received about 2% of the vote, and suspended his campaign.
Democrats: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both received about half the vote in an exceptionally tight race. Clinton's campaign has claimed victory, but the race has not been called by the Associated Press as of this writing. Regardless of who ultimately wins, the delegate account is proportional here as well so it doesn't make much practical difference, beyond bragging rights. The exact delegate numbers are a little sketchy, but it looks like Sanders will have 21, with Clinton having between 23 and 29, depending on whether so-called 'super delegates' are included. Click or tap the above graphic to see the full Democratic results.
Martin O'Malley received less than 1% and also withdrew from the race.
After a poor showing in Iowa, former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley is expected to suspend his campaign.
This will leave a two-person Democratic race. As of this writing, Iowa is too close to call between Sanders and Clinton.
We've added delegate state maps to our Republican and Democratic nomination pages. These maps let you see how many delegates each state will send to the respective party's national convention. You can choose to view the map based on time, contest type or allocation method, and from there look at any slice of those three elements.
Each state can be clicked or tapped to get a little more detail on the state's contest as well as a polling average (if enough recent polls are available) and individual poll detail.
This Republican map, for example, is based on allocation methods, and shows how the 689 delegates up on Super Tuesday will be allocated.
Within the time dimension, there's also an option for 'Up Next', which will highlight the next date one or more contests are being held. It's not particularly exciting with only one, but here's the Democratic map using that filter:
The polling is (should be) done, and the vote takes place tonight at the Iowa caucuses.
Republicans: Donald Trump has led in all recent polls, averaging a four point margin over Ted Cruz in the last five polls. Rubio has been gaining some momentum in recent surveys, although the 'gold star' Iowa poll out over the weekend had him well back of Cruz and Trump. It wouldn't be terribly surprising if there was a very close 3-way battle tonight; perhaps with Trump, Cruz and Rubio finishing within 5% of each other.
Democrats: Polls have varied widely in this race, although many of the most recent ones have shown a slight lead for Hillary Clinton. It appears that turnout for the Sanders campaign will be crucial in determining whether the Vermont Senator can score an important early win. Either way, it is looking good for Sanders in next week's New Hampshire primary. A new poll out this AM has him up by 31 points over Clinton.
Content Display IssuesA few people have reported problems viewing certain 270toWin election maps and/or polls. If you have an Ad Blocker in place, please disable it. Separately, you may not be able to view our maps in the new IE10 browser due to some changes Microsoft has made regarding the display of Flash content. This issue will not be fixed prior to the election, so you may want to visit 270toWin using a different web browser. Sorry for any inconvenience.
Copyright © 2004-2019 270towin.com All Rights Reserved