Election News

Justice Scalia Dies; Implications to Ripple Through 2016 Elections

February 13, 2016

Justice Antonin Scalia, who served nearly 30 years on the Supreme Court, was found dead today at a resort in Texas. He was 79. The vacancy has huge implications for the 2016 presidential and Senate elections.

According to a guest on MSNBC (no link available), Republican-appointed justices have been in the majority of the Court since 1972.

The president nominates Supreme Court justices, who must be confirmed by the U.S. Senate.

What Now?

The Court is ideologically divided 4-4 with the vacancy created by Scalia's passing. We obviously have a presidential election this year, and 34 U.S. Senate seats are up for election. The presidential race is likely to be competitive, and it is also close to 50/50 as to who will control the Senate.

This creates an interesting 'game theory' situation. Does President Obama nominate someone now, knowing that if he name someone with his ideological view, that person would have a very difficult time getting confirmed in a Republican-controlled Senate? Or does he nominate a moderate, hoping that person can get approved?  Both parties will be reading the tea leaves as the year goes on.

For example, Republicans are already saying (McConnell, Cruz) that the appointment should wait until a new president is in office. However, if it becomes obvious that Democrats will win the White House and take control of the Senate, they might become more accommodating to an Obama nominee as the year goes on.

Ironically, Senator Cruz's statement could work against him, to the benefit of establishment Republicans, if voters conclude that Cruz or other outsiders like Donald Trump can't win in 2016.

 



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Sanders Erases Clinton Lead in Nevada, New Poll Finds

February 12, 2016

Nevadans may be 'Feeling the Bern' after the Vermont Senator's strong performance in New Hampshire earlier this week. In a new Nevada survey conducted by TargetPoint, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are tied at 45%. This is the first Nevada poll since late December, when Gravis Marketing found Clinton ahead by 23 points. 

While we'd like to see more polls confirm this, long-time Nevada political expert Jon Ralston says the results look pretty reasonable.

The Nevada Democratic caucuses are on February 20.


2016 House Race Ratings Update Slightly Favors Republicans

February 11, 2016

The team at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has updated their 2016 House of Representatives outlook, making 17 ratings changes. Of these, ten are positive for Republicans, while seven move in favor of Democrats. Nine of the races have become less competitive. 379 out of 435 seats are seen as safe for one party or the other, meaning the battle control will be fought in just 56 seats.

Since Democrats need to gain 30 seats to take control, it is highly likely that Republicans will hold the House in the 115th Congress. The elephant (or donkey, if you prefer) in the room is the presidential election. The Crystal Ball rankings profile is based on a "close national election where neither presidential candidate exerts excessive influence on other races."

The ratings changes follow. Use our 2016 House Interactive Map for a visual view and to create your own forecast. Note that we have recently enlarged the map and are working on some other enhancements to make it more user-friendly.


Carly Fiorina Suspends Campaign

February 10, 2016

Former HP CEO Carly Fiorina has ended her quest for the White House. She issued a statement on her Facebook account, the first paragraph of which follows:

"This campaign was always about citizenship—taking back our country from a political class that only serves the big, the powerful, the wealthy, and the well connected. Election after election, the same empty promises are made and the same poll-tested stump speeches are given, but nothing changes. I've said throughout this campaign that I will not sit down and be quiet. I'm not going to start now. While I suspend my candidacy today, I will continue to travel this country and fight for those Americans who refuse to settle for the way things are and a status quo that no longer works for them."

Fiorina's exit, along with the likely departure of New Jersey governor Chris Christie, would leave just 7 of the original 17 Republicans in the race. Follow the race on our Republican Nomination page, which includes delegate and poll information, as well as links to information about each state's contest.


Christie Expected to Suspend 2016 Campaign After Disappointing New Hampshire Vote

February 10, 2016

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is expected to suspend his 2016 presidential bid today; exiting the race one day after a 6th place finish in New Hampshire. Christie received no delegates through the first two events of the 2016 nominating race.

 


New Hampshire Results Summary: Winners, Vote and Delegates

February 10, 2016

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders cruised to easy wins in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. Both outperformed the polling which, overall, was pretty accurate.

 

Both parties allocate delegates in a proportional manner. After two events, Donald Trump leads with 17 delegates; Ted Cruz has 10. 1,237 are needed to win the Republican nomination. Bernie Sanders earned 13 delegates to Hillary Clinton's 9 in New Hampshire. Clinton is well ahead in delegates, owing to her receiving the support of a large number of party superdelegates. 

Up next are the Nevada Democratic caucus and South Carolina Republican primary, both on Saturday, February 20.


Trump, Sanders Win New Hampshire

February 9, 2016

No suspense, at least for first place, in New Hampshire. NBC has called the race for Donald Trump on the Republican side and Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side.


Rubio Hold 2nd in Latest Batch of Polls; Impact of Debate Performance Remains to be Seen

February 7, 2016

A new batch of Republican New Hampshire polls out this Sunday morning show little change from recent days. Donald Trump remains well ahead of the field, averaging 32% overall. Marco Rubio is 2nd with 15%, followed by Cruz at 13%, Kasich 11% and Bush 9%.

 

All of today's surveys were conducted prior to last night's debate, where Rubio's effort was widely panned. Fox News analyst Brit Hume said that the Florida Senator's performance "reminded me of nothing so much as Dan Quayle in the 1988 (vice) presidential debate..."

On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders holds a 15 point lead, on average, over Hillary Clinton after today's new set of polls.


New Hampshire Polling Update

February 5, 2016

Despite some variability across individual polls, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders retain double-digit leads as we head into the final weekend before Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. The five polls being averaged below were all released today (one yesterday on the Democratic side).

Republican: Trump and Rubio were 1-2 in all five of today's releases, with Trump's lead ranging from 10 to 21 points. Ted Cruz and John Kasich are essentially tied for 3rd, on average, although the two were no closer than 3 points in any individual poll. 

Correction: Rubio had 19.4% in the Suffolk poll, which rounds to 19%. The text "Trump's lead ranging from 9 to 21 points" in the above paragraph has been updated to reflect this change.

Democrat: Bernie Sanders leads in all five polls, with margins ranging from 9 to 20 points. Interestingly, the Suffolk survey showed the smallest spread in both parties.

 American Research Group and UMass Lowell have been conducting daily tracking polls, so expect to see continued polling releases over the weekend. 

The Tuesday snowstorm threat we discussed earlier seems to have waned with this afternoon's forecasts. The storm is still expected to form, but looks to track further offshore than earlier projections, limiting snow accumulations. Things could change again, of course.


New Hampshire Weather Tuesday Could Hurt Rubio, Benefit Trump and Cruz

February 5, 2016

A significant snowstorm is possible Tuesday for at least parts of New Hampshire, according to the National Weather Service. If the greatest impacts are along the coastal areas of the state, as is currently possible, it could impact turnout in areas of the state most receptive to 'establishment' candidates such as Rubio, Kasich, Bush & Christie.

At this point, the Weather Service sees snow 60% likely in Manchester and most areas through the state. Of particular note in the latest synopsis is that "there is potential for this system to become a significant snowstorm late Mon(day) through Tue(sday) for Maine and New Hampshire...especially along coastal areas".

Why would this hurt Rubio?

The graphic below, from The Wall Street Journal, attempts to project how candidates will do in different parts of New Hampshire, based on results from Iowa. Rubio's strong areas look to be more metropolitan areas and college towns, with the other establishment names expected to do well in the metropolitan areas. In New Hampshire, these areas are concentrated in the southern third of the state, the area most likely to see the greatest impacts from this storm. To the extent this hinders turnout in those parts of the state (relative to the more inland regions), Trump and Cruz could be the beneficiaries. At this point, Trump remains well ahead in the polls, with Cruz and Rubio in a battle for second.

 

Lots of caveats here: New Hampshire is a primary not a caucus, the characterizations in the graphic may not neatly transfer from Iowa to the Granite State, the evolution of the race may overwhelm any weather-related impacts and, of course, the state's residents are used to harsh winter conditions so turnout may not change all that much.

 

 



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