Below the electoral map on our site, there's a feature you may have seen called "The Road to 270". This feature calculates the number of 'critical path' combinations to 270 that remain for either party based on the undecided states in your map, as well as any possible tie combinations. It updates automatically each time you change the status of a state.
By critical path, we mean those combinations that are available to cross the required 270 electoral votes threshold. To take a simple example, let's say Obama has 262 electoral votes on your map, and the only two undecided states are Virginia (13 electoral votes) and New Hampshire (4 electoral votes). While there are two overall combinations there (VA or VA+NH), only one of them is relevant to our goal of 270. Put another way, if you were managing the Obama campaign in this scenario, how much resource would you devote to winning New Hampshire?
The new features include the following:
The Road to 270 also calculates tie scenarios that are possible with your map. Every remaining state is involved in a tie scenario, of course. The Ties page shows each possible tie scenario and how the states break out between Obama and Romney. These tie scenarios are not in any particular order at this time.
The Road to 270 feature appears when 12 or fewer states remain undecided on your map and neither candidate has reached 270 electoral votes.
We've relaunched "The Probability of 270" to the interactive electoral college map page. This feature works in tandem with your maps, as you create them, to tell you the probability that either candidate will reach 270 electoral votes based on the remaining states undecided on your map. The calculated probabilities for each state are derived primarily from current state by state polls, basically using the same methodology that underlies the 2012 election simulator (which is also live for 2012). Therefore, it is subject to many of the same limitations as that tool, which you can read about on the simulator page.
You'll find The Probability of 270 underneath The Road to 270, both of which are below the interactive map. As a reminder, The Road to 270 calculates every critical path to 270 electoral votes remaining for each of the candidates. Both of these features will appear with 12 or fewer states remaining undecided on your map, where neither candidate has 270 and will dynamically update every time you change the status of one of the states in the map.
For background on this, see this Swing States Update post. The current toss up map is here; 10 states remain in the toss up category based on the criteria of being listed as a toss up by one or more of 4 professional pundits.
NBC and Cook Political have made some race ratings changes this week. Those that impact the toss up states are shown in the accompanying table. Seven states are now seen as toss ups by all these groups: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. Iowa and New Hampshire are new this time. There's a difference of opinion on North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
**May 16 Update** A couple weeks back, the New York Times came out with their battleground state analysis. Wisconsin was included in that list. Given this plus recent polling which shows the race basically tied, we've added the Times as a 4th resource (see post below) and moved Wisconsin into the toss-up category in our map.
**UPDATE: Here's a saved/shareable copy of the toss-up map**
We've updated the swing states starting view on our home page 2012 interactive electoral map. As with all the views provided, this is just meant as a starting point for you to create and share your own forecast for the 2012 presidential election.
Any state considered a toss-up by one or more of the professional prognosticators below is shown as a swing state on our map. The rest of the states are colored blue or red, reflecting an overall opinion that those states are either leaning, likely or safe for one of the two candidates. All these groups have updated their forecasts this week (late April), so the 270 swing states map reflects the current general consensus of these groups.
Summary of Results:
Times displayed below are Eastern time.
Update March 6: We've now got a Super Tuesday polls page set up to display polls associated with these contests.
Update March 5: Polls out over the weekend and earlier today indicate a momentum shift from Santorum toward Romney in states where Santorum has been leading. In Ohio, which offers the 2nd largest total of Super Tuesday delegates, Santorum's large lead has evaporated, and the two are basically tied. In Tennessee, Santorum's double digit lead has fallen to about 5 points, right around the margin of error. More limited polling is available for Oklahoma, but the trend is the same. However, Santorum still held an 11 point lead in a poll out over the weekend.
270toWin is working on a page to display Republican primary polls. Hopefully, we'll have it up later today.
For the 2012 presidential election, Super Tuesday will occur on March 6. 10 states will hold Republican primaries or caucuses on this date, with 437 delegates up for grabs. This represents approximately 19% of the 2,286 total Republican delegates. The delegates available on Super Tuesday alone will be greater than in all events leading up to that date.
Here's a bit more on each state holding an event on Super Tuesday. Information compiled from Wikipedia, Real Clear Politics and fivethirtyeight. The delegate counts listed are the totals for the state at the Republican convention in Tampa this summer. Included in those totals, for most states, are a few unbound delegates that won't be allocated based on the primary or caucus results.
This year's Super Tuesday is a much smaller event than the one held on February 5, 2008. On that date, 24 states and American Samoa held their nominating elections.
An interesting historical fact as we move closer to the 2012 election:
Every president re-elected for a 2nd term*, except Wilson in 1916 won more electoral votes the 2nd time around.
On the other hand, most presidents who run for re-election and lose get beaten soundly in the process. Looking at those occurrences since 1900:
Purely based on history, it would seem a close electoral outcome is unlikely this year. However, as a reminder, with only 56 prior presidential elections, each 4 years apart, these kinds of facts are of very limited predictive value.*After following that trend, Roosevelt saw a decrease in both his 3rd and 4th terms).
During the early part of 2012, we gave away copies of our iPad app to the first twitter follower that correctly answered a trivia question. Those queries are summarized here:
February 14: Name the 4 presidents (excluding FDR), with Vice Presidents that served 2 full terms with them, who weren’t subsequently elected President
Answer: James Monroe (Daniel Tompkins), Woodrow Wilson (Thomas Marshall), Bill Clinton (Al Gore), George W. Bush (Dick Cheney).
February 9: Part 1: Name the first President born as an American citizen. Part 2: Of all the Presidents born as American citizens, name the state that has been the birthplace of the greatest number of them.
Answer: Part 1: Martin Van Buren Part 2: Ohio with 7. Many of our early presidents were born while the now United States was still under British rule. In fact, each president from Washington to Andrew Jackson was born a British subject. Martin Van Buren was the first born an American citizen (born 1782 in Kinderhook, New York). Van Buren’s successor, William Henry Harrison was the final president not born as an American citizen.
As for part 2, Virginia is the birthplace of 8 presidents. However, 5 of the 8 Virginians were in the group born as British subjects. Therefore, Ohio, with 7 presidents born there (all American citizens at birth) is the correct answer to the question asked. For more information, see this Wikipedia article.
February 6: Since 1900, there have been 28 presidential elections. Only 3 states have voted exactly 50% of the time (14 elections each) for the Democrat and Republican nominees. Saturday’s caucus state, Nevada, is one of them. Name the other two.
Answer: Missouri and Virginia, along with Nevada, have voted 50% of the time for the Democrat and Republican nominee since 1900. Related facts on voting since 1900:
February 1: Name the last election year where one candidate won the electoral votes of all states with any territory in the Mountain time zone?
Answer: In 1984, Ronald Reagan won all the states in the Mountain time zone. Most of this time zone votes Republican in each election. In fact, 7 states with some territory in that time zone haven’t voted for a Democrat since 1964. (See accompanying screen shot from our iPad app’s map library). The answer would have been 2004, except for the fact that Oregon has a small sliver of territory in the Mountain time zone. Armed with that information, one could use 270toWin Answers to see when the last time a Republican won Oregon. It was 1984 and, conveniently, all the other Mountain states (and almost the entire map) were red that year.
January 31: After each of last 7 Censuses, 1 state has gained 2+ electoral votes, one has lost 2+. Name both.
Answer: Florida (+2 or more) and New York (-2 or more). Coming close were California, Pennsylvania and Texas. California had gained 2 or more in 7 censuses from 1930 through 1990. However, this dropped to +1 in 2000 and no change in 2010. Pennsylvania has lost at least one electoral vote in the last 9 censuses, while Texas has gained at least one in the last 7.
January 30: How many presidential incumbents have won re-election?
Answer: 21 incumbents have won re-election. See the list below.
January 27: What state has voted Republican in the most presidential elections?
Answer: Although it is a very blue state today, Vermont has voted Republican 33 times, more than any other state. From 1856 to 1960, Vermont voted Republican in 27 consecutive elections. After siding with Johnson in 1964, the state vote Republican from 1968 (Nixon’s first term) through 1988 (George Herbert Walker Bush’s first term).
This segment ran on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart a few days before Election Day, 2008. The 270toWin map is in the background and the site itself is mentioned at the 2:19 mark. A pretty entertaining skit, with the theme of "let's get this election over with, already". Guessing there will be similar election burnout by October of this year as well.
According to Political Wire (originally sourced from Newsweek), the Obama campaign sees five paths to 270 electoral votes, all starting with the assumption that Obama will win all the states captured by John Kerry in 2004.
Those states awarded 252 electoral votes (although Kerry only received 251 electoral votes as a Minnesota elector voted for John Edwards). As a result of the 2010 Census, those same states now award 246 electoral votes.
Here are interactive versions of the 5 strategies. Which strategy is most likely to be successful? What if the basic premise (of winning all the Kerry states) is wrong? These maps are editable.... use them as a starting point to test the Obama campaign's beliefs against your own.
Let's be clear up-front: With only 56 prior presidential elections, each 4 years apart, these kinds of facts are of dubious predictive value. That said, we find these kinds of facts interesting. Use 270toWin Answers to get the answer to these types of questions for any combination of states, as well as other historical election trivia.
The 270toWin App for the Apple iPad is now available in the iTunes store. This app literally puts the 2012 election in your hands. We took many of the best features of 270toWin and re-imagined them for tablet technology. The result, we think, is an app you'll use over and over again until the 2012 election (and beyond).
Looking for a holiday gift? The 270toWin app is the perfect gift for the political junkie in your life. It is easy to gift the app. Just click the downward arrow below the 270toWin logo in the iTunes store or, touch "Gift this App" if you are looking at the 270toWin app in the App Store on your iPad.
Here are some features of the app that you won't find on the 270toWin website:
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