Election News

2020 Battleground Map Starts as Broadest in a Generation

November 15, 2018

The 2020 electoral battleground map starts out much broader than in any presidential contest since 1992, according to an analysis in the Axios AM Newsletter on November 15th, 2018. "To win re-election, President Trump must wage a two-front war: Not only does he have to defend Democratic-leaning Midwest states that sealed his victory in 2016, but he now needs to defend against clear Republican erosion in the South and Southwest."

Doug Sosnik, who did the analysis, says "Changing demographicsand Trump have blown up the electoral map that has dominated American politics since 1992."

An interactive version is below. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 election forecast.

 



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Kim Wins NJ-3; Midterm Election Sees the Garden State's GOP Delegation Cut from 5 to 1

November 14, 2018

Democrat Andy Kim will win in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district. The election was called Wednesday afternoon by our results partner Decision Desk HQ, as well as by the Associated Press. This is the 230th seat won by Democrats, a net gain of 35. Six races remain uncalled.

In our pre-election New Jersey House overview, we noted that "If Democrats have a particularly good night, 19 term Rep. Christopher Smith (NJ-4) may be the only Republican in the New Jersey House delegation in 2019."  With Kim's victory, that will indeed be the case. 

 


Democrats Win CA-10, Gaining 34th House Seat. 7 Races Remain Undecided

November 14, 2018

Democrat Josh Harder is the projected winner in California's 10th congressional district. He defeated four-term incumbent Republican Jeff Denham. This marks the 34th net gain for Democrats in the House midterm elections, giving them 229 seats.  Republicans currently have 199, with 7 seats remaining to be decided.

This is the fourth gain for Democrats in California, giving them a 43 to 8 margin in the state's 53-person House delegation. The 39th and 45th districts remain uncalled.  These are both GOP-held seats in the Los Angeles area.


Associated Press: Sinema Wins Arizona Senate Race

November 12, 2018

The Associated Press projects Democrat Kyrsten Sinema to win the closely-contested Arizona Senate race.

After this call, Republicans hold 51 Senate seats, Democrats 47, with two races remaining undecided.  Those are in Florida and Mississippi.  In Florida, Sen. Bill Nelson and his GOP challenger, Rick Scott, are separated by less than 0.25%, with a contentious recount underway. The Mississippi race is a special election, and will be decided in a runoff on November 27th.

 




Uncalled Races Update: Sinema Takes Small Lead in Arizona

November 9, 2018

U.S. Senate and Governor

As the vote count continues, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has taken a small lead over Republican Martha McSally in the Arizona Senate race. Several hundred thousand ballots sent by mail are dropped off on Election Day, and these take time to be counted. Overall, approximately 400,000 ballots remain to be tallied.

Arizona U.S. Senate

Elsewhere, Florida's Senate race is likely headed for a hand recount, with the margin under 0.25%, while the gubernatorial race may get a machine recount, with a margin of under 0.50%. The Associated Press, as well as our results partner, Decision Desk, called the gubernatorial race for Ron DeSantis, and Democrat Andrew Gillum has conceded. A machine recount isn't likely to change that outcome, although this is Florida so one can never be sure.  

Things are a bit less clear on the Senate side, with the closer total and the prospect of a hand recount. The Associated Press has not called this race, and Nelson has not conceded. Decision Desk has called the race for Scott, and you will see that in the Florida vote counts. However, we have left the state undecided in our interactive 2018 Actual Senate map.

Meanwhile, the gubernatorial race in Georgia remains undecided. Republican Brian Kemp resigned as secretary of state Thursday. Kemp has 50.3% of the vote, to 48.7% for Stacey Abrams. As we've previously noted, the issue here is not whether Kemp will have the most votes, but rather whether he will stay above the 50% threshold needed to avoid a December runoff.

U.S. House

Four more races were called overnight, leaving 10 undecided. GA-6, MI-8 and NJ-7 went to Democrats, while IL-13 was won by the GOP. Democrats have now won 227 seats, Republicans 198. That's a net gain of 32 for Democrats. All 10 of the undecided races are currently held by the GOP. (Vote Counts for Uncalled Races >>).  

Related: 2018 Actual Interactive House Map


New Mexico 2nd Flips to Democrats; 14 Races Remain Uncalled

November 8, 2018

In a surprising turn of events, Democrat Xochitl Torres Small has won in New Mexico's 2nd congressional district. The Republican nominee, Yvette Herrell had led on Election Night, with numerous media outlets declaring her the winner. However, absentee ballots counted Wednesday were heavily weighted toward Torres Small, putting her over the top.

Democrats have now won 224 seats, Republicans 197, with 14 remaining uncalled. That's a net gain of 29 for Democrats. All 14 of the undecided races are currently held by the GOP. (Vote Counts for Uncalled Races >>).

Related: 2018 Actual Interactive House Map


Election Results Update

November 7, 2018

U.S. House

Democrats will have control of this branch of Congress beginning in January. As of this writing, they have won 220 seats, more than the 218 needed for a majority. Republicans have won 197. 18 districts remain uncalled.  All but one of the remaining seats is currently held by the GOP.  If you'd like to game out the remaining seats, here's an interactive House map based on actual results.

U.S. Senate

Republicans started the night with 51 seats and they'll have at least that many heading into 2019. Democratic incumbents Joe Donnelly (Indiana), Claire McCaskill (Missouri) and Heidi Heitkamp (North Dakota) went down to defeat. Democrats picked up Nevada.

On the map below, Florida is awarded to Republican Rick Scott, while California is not yet called. These are calls (or non-calls) made by our results partner, Decision Desk. Scott is ahead, but there remains the possibility of a recount. In California, there are two Democrats on the ballot. While a nominee call has not been made, Democrats will retain that seat.  On our interactive Senate map of actual results, we've awarded California, while keeping Florida undecided. 

The other two uncalled races are Arizona and the special election in Mississippi. In Arizona, Rep. Martha McSally (R) has a lead of just under 1% with over 99% of the vote in. Meanwhile, as expected, Mississippi's race is headed to a November 27th runoff.

Governor

Democrats have won six Republican-held seats, significantly cutting into the latter’s 33-16 edge heading into Election Day. Connecticut and Georgia remain undecided, although the Associated Press has called it for Democrat Ned Lamont. We show that on our interactive Governor map of actual results.

In Georgia, Republican Brian Kemp has 50.6% of the vote, a lead of about 2 points. The question at this point is not whether Kemp will finish with more votes than Democrat Stacey Abrams, but rather whether Kemp will finish above the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff on December 4th.

 


Election Night: 7:00 PM Poll Closings

November 6, 2018

3 Senate seats, 3 Governor, 62 House

Expect the first race calls of the night shortly after the top of the hour.

 

Florida (all but the panhandle)

Georgia

Indiana (remainder of state)

Kentucky (remainder of state)

South Carolina

Virginia

Vermont


2018 Election Poll Closing Times

November 4, 2018

We've updated the Poll Closing Times schedule for this week's midterm elections. The first polls close at 6:00PM Eastern in parts of Kentucky and Indiana, with the final ones at 1:00AM Wednesday morning in portions of Alaska's Aleutian Islands.

The page includes the number of Senate, Governor and House races that are affected by each closing time. This is based on the latest poll close time for the state or district. In most cases, a race won't be called before this time.  

Note that there's a lot of local variation in closing times. Your polling place may close earlier. Do not rely on this schedule to determine when to vote.

The first congressional districts close at 6:00 PM in Kentucky and Indiana. There are three districts to keep an eye on in this first hour. Kentucky's 6th district is a true toss-up race in a district Trump won by 15 points in 2016. Democrats have a high quality nominee in retired Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath; she has outraised the three-term incumbent Andy Barr. 

Meanwhile, in neighboring Indiana, keep an eye on the 2nd and 9th districts. If Republicans struggle or lose either of these, the party could be in for a long night.


Two Days Out: Updated Senate Rankings and Poll Averages

November 4, 2018

There hasn't been all that much movement in the Senate races since we first published this chart last Sunday.  Small changes in the polling averages (choose a state) and FiveThirtyEight Classic Model probabilities; no changes at all in the consensus forecaster rating

A few notes:

  • All the 'safe' seats still seem supported by the polling averages and the FiveThirtyEight probability. 
  • The momentum of Michigan GOP nominee John James seems to have stalled. Sen. Debbie Stabenow has led by 9% or more in the three most recent polls. James did have one of the more amusing tweets this past week, however. 
  • As a result, Michigan joins the other 'likely Democratic' seats with regularly scheduled elections this year (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) as looking pretty safe for the incumbents.  All are now in that FiveThirtyEight category, with a Democratic probability above 95%.
  • The biggest discrepancy between FiveThirtyEight and the consensus seems to be in Montana, where FiveThirtyEight gives Sen. Jon Tester an 87.6% chance of being re-elected.
  • In Nevada, Jacky Rosen has led in the three most recent polls, putting her just slightly ahead of Sen Dean Heller in the average.


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